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Pages “*Scientists* & identity-protective cognition? Well, on the one hand … on the other hand … on the *other* other hand …” A fragment “A sensitive matter” indeed! The science communication risks of climate model recalibration “Anyone who doesn’t agree must be a Marxist!” Plus “bans,” “decibans,” & Turing & Good on “evidentiary weight” “Bounded rationality”: the Grigori Rasputin of explanations for public perceptions of climate change risk “Climate change caused …”: linguistics, empirics, & reasoned discourse “Clueless bumblers”: Explaining the “noise” in a polluted science communication environment… “Conservatives lose faith in science over last 40 years”–where do you see *that* in the data? “Fake news”–enh. “Alternative Facts presidency”–watch out! (Talk summary & slides) “I was wrong?! Coooooooooool!” “Is politically motivated reasoning rational?” A fragment … “Krugman’s ‘magic motivated reasoning mirror’ show”– I’ve stopped watching but not trying to learn from reflective people who still are “Let’s shame them!”: part and parcel of the dangerous seat-of-the-pants, evidence-free style of risk communication we are using to protect universal vaccination in US “Messaging” scientific consensus: ruminations on the external validity of climate-science-communication studies, part 2 “More statistics, less persuasion”: the gun control debate continues, and continues to miss the point… “Motivated Numeracy”: What’s the Point? (lecture synopsis, slides) “Politically Motivated Reasoning Paradigm” (PMRP): what it is, how to measure it “Politics & Science Webinar” Q&A;: vaccine- & GM food-risk perceptions “Religion, not political predispositions or political elite discourse, generates conflict over science” Seriously?!!! “SCS_1.0”: Measuring science curiosity “the strongest evidence to date” on effect of “97% consensus” messaging “the strongest evidence to date” on effect of “97% consensus” messaging “They already got the memo” part 2: More data on the *public consensus* on what “climate scientists think” about human-caused global warming “They Saw a Protest”: Cognitive Illiberalism and the Speech-Conduct Distinction “They saw a statutory ambiguity”–judges & motivated reasoning “Tragedy of the Science-Communication Commons” (lecture summary, slides) “What exactly is going on in their heads?” (And in mine?) Explaining “knowing disbelief” of climate change “You — talking to me? Are *you* talking to *me?” Actually, no, I’m not; the data don’t tell us how any individual thinks (or that your side is either “biased” or “right”). A case study: the HPV vaccine disaster (Science of Science Communication Course, Session 1) A complete and accurate account of how everything works A fragment: The concept of the science commmunication environment A nice empirical study of vaccine risk communication–and an unfortunate, empirically uninformed reaction to it A Pigovian tax solution (for now) for review/publication of studies that use M Turk samples A snapshot of the “white male effect” — i.e., “white male hierarch individualist effect” — on climate change A Tale of (the Tales Told About) Two Expert Consensus Reports: Death Penalty & Gun Control Actually, empirical evidence suggests a sure fire way to dramatically lower gun homicides: repeal drug laws Against “consensus messaging” . . . Against “consensus messaging” . . . Amazingly cool & important article on virulence of ideologically motivated reasoning Ambivalence about “messaging” An interesting story: on whether “strengthening self-defense law deters crime” Annual “new study” finds 97% of climate scientists believe in man-made climate change; public consensus sure to follow once news gets out Are *positions* on the deterrent effect of the death penalty & gun control possible & justifiable? Of course! Are judges politically biased? New paper, new study, new methods, new body piercings–new new new! Are people more conservative when “primed for reflection” or when “primed for intuition”? Apparently both . . . . (or CRT & identity-protective reasoning Part 2^8) As their science comprehension increases, do members of the public (a) become more likely to recognize scientific consensus exists on human-caused climate change; (b) become more politically polarized on whether human-caused climate change is happening; or (c) both?! Bounded rationality, unbounded out-group hate Browse Papers CCP’s Evidence-based Science Communication Initiative CCP/Annenberg PPC Science of Science Communication Lab, Session 2: Measuring relative curiosity Checking in on the “white male effect” for risk perception Climate change & the media: what’s the story? (Answer: expressive rationality) Climate change polarization “fast and slow” Climate change polarization “fast and slow” Climate Science Communication and the Measurement Problem Climate science literacy, critical reasoning, and independent thinking … Cognitive dualism and beliefs as “dispositions to action” … a fragment Cognitive illiberalism & expressive overdetermination … a fragment Cognitive reasoning-style measures other than CRT *are* valid–but for what? Cognitive reflection and “belief in” evolution: critically engaging the evidence Coin toss reveals that 56% (+/- 3%, 0.95 LC) of quarters support NSA’s “metadata” monitoring policy! Or why it is absurd to assign significance to survey findings that “x% of American public” thinks y about policy z Communicating Scientific Consensus: John Cook responds Congratulations, tea party members: You are just as vulnerable to politically biased misinterpretation of science as everyone else! Is fixing this threat to our Republic part of your program? Constructing an “Ordinary climate science intelligence” assessment: a fragment … Coolest article of the yr– hot hands down! Could geoengineering cool the climate change debate? Critical thinking about public opinion on climate change Cultural “fact polarization” trumps cultural “value” polarization — a fragment Cultural cognition & cat-risk perceptions: Who sees what & why? Cultural Cognition and Public Policy Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk Cultural Cognition Dictionary (or Glossary, whatever) Cultural Cognition of health through Supplements Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology Cultural cognition of weather: a cool (or warm) guest post! Cultural cognition of weather: a cool (or warm) guest post! Cultural vs. ideological cognition, part 1 Cultural vs. ideological cognition, part 3 Culturally polarized Australia: Cross-cultural cultural cognition, Part 3 (and a short diatribe about ugly regression outputs) Culture and Identity-Protective Cognition: Explaining the White Male Effect Culture, rationality, and the tragedy of the science communications commons (lecture synopsis and slides) Dan Kahan’s Publications Dan M. Kahan Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor of Law & Professor of Psychology Yale Law School Dan Vergano: Pole-vaulting a polarized public? Date-rape debate deja vu: the script is 20 yrs out of date Date-rape debate deja vu: the script is 20 yrs out of date Deja voodoo: the puzzling reemergence of invalid neuroscience methods in the study of “Democrat” & “Republican Brains” Dewey on curiosity & science comprehension Do conservatives become more concerned with climate risks as their trust in science increases? Do mass political opinions cohere? And do psychologists “generalize without evidence” more often than political scientists? Do more educated people see more risk — or less — in climate change? Do people with higher levels of “science aptitude” see more risk — or less — in climate change? Do Type S and Type M errors reflect confirmation bias?! Does “climate science literacy trump ideology” in Australia? Not as far as I can tell! Guy et al., Effects of knowledge & ideology part 1 Doing science is different from communicating it — even when the science is the science of science communication Don’t be a science miscommunicator’s dope (or dodo) Don’t select on the dependent variable in studying the science communication problem Donald Trump: Science Communication Environment Polluter-in-Chief Entries by Dan Kahan (954) Entries by Dan Kahan (954) Ethical guidelines for science communication informed by cultural cognition research Evidence-based Science Filmmaking Evidence-based Science Filmmaking Initiative Finally: decisive, knock-down, irrefutable proof of the ideological symmetry of motivated reasoning First National Risk & Culture Study Five theses on science communication: the public and decision-relevant science, part 2 Fixing the Communications Failure Fooled twice, shame on who? Problems with Mechanical Turk study samples, part 2 For the 10^6 time: GM foods is *not* polarizing issue in the U.S., plus an initial note on Pew’s latest analysis of its “public-vs.-scientists” survey Geoengineering & the cultural plasticity of climate change risk perceptions: Part I Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment: A Cross-Cultural Experiment Geoengineering the science communication environment: the cultural plasticity of climate change risks part II Getting the Most Out of Replication Studies Got facts? The boring, ignorant, anti-liberal, science-communication-environment polluting “who is more anti-science” game Grading the 2015 version of Pew study of public attitudes toward science Grading the 2015 version of Pew study of public attitudes toward science Guest post: Some weird things in measuring belief in human-caused climate change Gun Risk Perceptions Have Republicans changed views on evolution? Or have creationists changed party? Pew’s (half-released) numbers don’t add up … Hey everybody — take the cool CCP/APPC “Political Polarization Literacy” test! Hey, everyone! Try your hand at graphic reporting and see if you can win the Gelman Cup! Holy smokes! The “‘hot-hand fallacy’ fallacy”! How are climate skepticism, disbelief in evolution & vaccine hesitancy related? How big a difference in mean CRT scores is “big enough” to matter? or NHT: A malignant craft norm, part 2 How religiosity and science literacy interact: Evolution & science literacy part 2 How should science museums communicate climate science? (lecture summary & slides) How to recognize asymmetry in motivated reasoning if/when you see it How would scientists do on a public “science literacy” test — and should we care? Stocklmayer & Bryant vs. NSF Indicators “Science literacy” scale part 2 HPV Vaccine I agree with Chris Mooney — on *the* most important thing I see “They Saw a Protest” Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection: An Experimental Study If you think GM food & vaccine risk perceptions have any connection to the “climate change risk perception” family, think again In awe of the Industrial Strength Risk Perception Measure. . . . Industrial strength risk perception measure Is “shaming” an effective way to counteract biased information processing? A preliminary investigation Is A. Gelman trying to provoke me, or is that just my narcissism speaking? Is cultural cognition a bummer? Part 1 Is cultural cognition an instance of “bounded rationality”? A ten-yr debate Is cultural cognition the same thing as (or even a form of) confirmation bias? Not really; & here’s why, and why it matters Is disgust “conservative”? Not in a Liberal society (or likely anywhere else) Is ideologically motivated reasoning rational? And do only conservatives engage in it? It’s journal club time (episode 391)! Lewandowsky et al. on scientific consensus It’s that time again: Science of Science Communication course in Spring Term Kahan on Cook et al.: 4 points Let it be? Measuring partisan reactions to existing mandatory vaccination laws Let’s keep discussing M Turk sample validity Lewandowsky on “knowing disbelief” Likelihood Ratio ≠ 1 Journal (LR ≠1J) Making Climate-Science Communication Evidence-based—All the Way Down Making sense of the ” ‘hot hand fallacy’ fallacy,” part 1 MAPKIA! “answer” episode 1: The interaction effect of religion & science comprehension on perceptions of climate change risk MAPKIA! Episode 31 “Answer”: culturally programmed risk predispositions alert to “fracking” but say “enh” (pretty much) to GM foods Measuring “Ordinary Science Intelligence” (Science of Science Communication Course, Session 2) Measuring “ordinary science intelligence”: a look under the hood of OSI_2.0 Misconceptions, Misinformation, and the Logic of Identity-Protective Cognition Misinformation and climate change conflict Mitigation & adaptation: Two remedies for a polluted science communication environment Modeling the incoherence of coherence based reasoning: report from Law & Cognition 2016 Money talks, & without the bias of cultural cognition: so why not listen? Mooney’s revenge?! Is there “asymmetry” in Motivated Numeracy? More conversation — & an announcment of my commitment to the same More GM food risk data to chew on–compliments of GSS More market consensus on climate change: 97% of insurance companies agree (& hedge funds too!) More on “Krugman’s symmetry proof”: it’s not whether one gets the answer right or wrong but how one reasons that counts More on (non)relationship between disgust & perceived risks of vaccines & GM foods More on disgust: Both liberals and conservatives *feel* it, but what contribution is it really making to their moral appraisals? More on Hameed’s “Pakistani Dr” — “explaining contradictory beliefs” begs the question More on ideological symmetry of motivated reasoning (but is that really what’s important?) More on public “trust of scientists”: *You* tell *me* what it means! Motivated consequentialist reasoning Motivated Numeracy (new paper)! Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government Motivated reasoning & its cognates Motivated System 2 Reasoning (MS2R): a Research Program Motivated system 2 reasoning–experimental evidence & its significance for explaining political polarization Mystery solved? Age, political knowledge, and political polarization Nanotechnology Risk Perceptions Not very reflective tea-party/Republicans Now, getting back to disgust: we’ve done guns & drones; what about *vaccines*? Nullius in verba? Surely you are joking, Mr. Hooke! (or Why cultural cognition is not a bias, part 1) On becoming part of a polluted science communication environment while studying it…. Osi 2 Pakistani Dr & Kentucky Farmer cause uprising of agitated reflection at Annenberg Center! Partisan Media Are Not Destroying America Perplexed–once more–by “emotions in criminal law,” Part 2: The “evaluative conception” Pew on Climate Polarization: Glimpses of cognitive dualism . . . Polarization on policy-relevant science is not the norm (the “silent denominator” problem) Politically nonpartisan folks are culturally polarized on climate change Projects Proof of ideologically motivated reasoning–strong vs. weak Protecting the Vaccine Science Communication Environment Public Attitudes Toward Childhood Vaccines Question: Who is more disposed to motivated reasoning on climate change — hierarchical individualists or egalitarian communitarians? Answer: Both! R^2 (“r squared”) envy Reflections on “System 2 bias,” part 1 of 2 (I think) Replicate “Climate-Science Communication Measurement Problem”? No sweat (despite hottest yr on record), thanks to Pew Research Center! Report from Garrison Institute Climate Change conference: the good & not so good… Response: An “externally-valid” approach to consensus messaging Return of the chick sexers . . . Science and public policy: Who distrusts whom about what? Science and the craft norms of science journalism, Part 2: Making craft norms evidence based Science curiosity & climate change (de)polarization (new paper) Science curiosity and identity-protective cognition … a glimpse at a possible (negative) relationship Science curiosity research program Science curiosity vs. politically motivated reasoning: An experimental steel cage match! Science journalists: Ask not what the science of science communication can do for you . . . Science literacy & cultural polarization: it doesn’t happen *just* with global warming, but it also doesn’t happen for *all* risks. Why? Science literacy and political polarization Scientists discover source of public controversy on GM food risks: bitter cultural division between scaredy cats and everyone else! search (Showing 1 – 10 of 75) Search (Showing 1 – 10 of 785) Second National Risk & Culture Study Serious problems with “the strongest evidence to date” on consensus messaging … Sitemap So what is “the best available scientific evidence” anyway? So you want to meet the ‘Pakistani Dr’? Just pay a visit to the Kentucky Farmer Some data on education, religiosity, ideology, and science comprehension Some experimental data on CRT, ideology, and motivated reasoning (probing Mooney’s Republican Brain) Some more canned data on religiosity & science attitudes storage/kahan_sencer_9_28_14.pptx The (non)relationship between “believing in” evolution and being engaged by evolutionary science The (non)relationship between “believing in” evolution and being engaged by evolutionary science The black and white — but mainly gray — of gun control and drug prohibition, part 1 The black and white — but mainly gray — of gun control and drug prohibition, part 2 The cultural certification of truth in the Liberal Republic of Science (or part 2 of why cultural cognition is not a bias) The culturally polarizing effect of the “anti-science trope” on vaccine risk perceptions The declining authority of science? (Science of Science Communication course, Session 3) The earth is (still) round, even at P < 0.005 The evolution debate isn’t about science literacy either The false and tedious “defective brain” meme The Goldilocks “theory” of public opinion on climate change The Ideological Symmetry of Motivated Reasoning The impact of “science consensus” surveys — a graphic presentation The Impact of Ad Hoc Vaccine Risk Communication The Liberal Republic of Science, part 1: the concept of “political regime” The Liberal Republic of Science, part 2: What is it?! The Liberal Republic of Science, part 3: Popper’s Revenge…. The Liberal Republic of Science, part 4: “A new political science …” The logic of reciprocity–and the illogic of empirically uninformed vaccine risk communication The making of a Pakistani Veterinarian in Kentucky: cognitive apartheid vs. cognitive dualism The more you know, the more you … Climate change vs. GM foods The NRA’s “expressive-rope-a-dope-trick” The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks The quality of the science communication environment and the vitality of reason The relationship of LR ≠1J concept to “adversarial collaboration” & “replication” initiatives The science communication problem: one good explanation, four not so good ones, and a fitting solution The science of protecting the science communication environment The Science of Science Communication The Science of Science Communication The Southeast Florida Evidence-based Science Communication Initiative The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons: Culture Conflict, Rationality Conflict, and Climate Change The trust-in-science *particularity thesis* … a fragment The value of civic science literacy There is pervasive cultural consensus on the value of childhood vaccines in the U.S.; so why do people *think* that being anti-vaccine reflects any particular cultural predisposition? They’ve already gotten the memo! What the public (Rs & Ds) think “climate scientists believe” Three theories of why we see ideological polarization on facts Timely resistance to pollution of the science communication environment: Genetically modified foods in the US, part 3 Tragedy of the Science-Communications Commons Trend in conservative distrust of scientists: what does it mean? Trust in science & perceptions of GM food risks — does the GSS have something to say on this? Two common (& recent) mistakes about dual process reasoning & cognitive bias U.S. risk-perception/polarization snapshot Unconfounding knowledge from cultural identity–as big a challenge for measuring the climate-science literacy of middle schoolers as grown ups Undertheorized and unvalidated: Stocklmayer & Bryant vs. NSF Indicators “Science literacy” scale part I Vaccine Risk Perception Report Vaccine risk perceptions and risk communication: study conclusions & recommendations Vaccines and the “anti-science” trope Wanna see more data? Just ask! Episode 1: another helping of GM food Watching (resisting) pollution of the science communication environment in real time: genetically modified foods in the US, part 1 We are *all* Pakistani Drs/Kentucky Farmers, Part 1: Manny’s perspective(s) We aren’t polarized on GM foods– no matter what the result in Washington state Weekend update: “Culture is prior to fact” & what that implies about resolving political conflict over risk Weekend update: “Knowing disbelief in evolution”– a fragment Weekend update: Another helping of evidence on what “believers” & “disbelievers” do & don’t “know” about climate science Weekend update: cognitive illiberalism–what is it? & what does it have to do with the Constitution? Weekend update: Debate heats up on impact of melting north pole on sea level rise! Weekend update: Disentanglement Principle, A Lesson from SE Fla Climate Political Science Lecture (& slides) Weekend update: In quest of 3d graphic for risk perception distributions Weekend update: OMG– we are now as politically polarized over cell phone radiation as over GM food risks!!! Weekend update: Pew’s disappointing use of invalid survey methods on GM food risk perceptions Weekend update: Some research on climate literacy to check out Weekend update: Still fooled by non-randomness? Some gadgets to help you *see* the ” ‘hot hand’ fallacy” fallacy Weekend update: Tedx restored to youtube Weekend update: The distracting, counterproductive “97% consensus” debate grinds on Weekend update: You’d have to be science illiterate to think “belief in evolution” measures science literacy Well, things are going slowly in the kitchen, so here’s another “vaccine risk perception” appetizer — on the house Well, things are going slowly in the kitchen, so here’s another “vaccine risk perception” appetizer — on the house What “climate skeptics” have in common with “believers”: a stubborn attraction to evidence-free, just-so stories about the formation of public risk perceptions What “bodycams” can and can’t be expected to do. . . plus coolest study of the year What accounts for public conflict over science–religiosity or political predispositions? Here are some data: you declare the winner in this RAT vs. CAT fight! What are fearless white hierarchical individualist males afraid of? Lots of stuff! What do I think of Mooney’s “Republican Brain”? What do polluted & nonpolluted science communication environments *look* like? & how about childhood vaccines?…. What does “disbelief” in evolution *mean*? What does “belief” in it *measure*? Evolution & science literacy part 1 What does a valid climate-change risk-perception measure *look* like? What does Christie know that the rest of us don’t? My guess is nothing (or even less that that actually) What inferences can be drawn from *empirical evidence* about the science-communication impact of using the term “climate change denier”? What is a “cultural style”? And some thoughts about convergent validity What is the *message* of real-world “scientific consensus” messaging? Ruminations on the external validity of climate-science-communication studies, part 3 What is the evidence that an “anti-vaccination movement” is “causing” epidemics of childhood diseases in US? (“HFC! CYPHIMU?” Episode No. 2) What is to be done? What SE Florida can teach us about the *political* science of climate change What sorts of inferences can/can’t be drawn from the “Republican shift” (now that we have enough information to answer the question)? What the Gang of 32 at Science got wrong–and what they got right… What would I advise climate science communicators? What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses *who you are* What’s a “valid” sample? Problems with Mechanical Turk study samples, part 1 What’s to explain? Kulkarni on “knowing disbelief” What’s that hiding behind the poll? Perceiving public perceptions of biotechnology Who distrusts whom about what in the climate science debate? Who fears childhood vaccines and why? Research report & project Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn’t, and Why? An Experimental Study Who fears what & why? Trust but verify! Who has a better comprehension of science–“skeptics” or “nonskeptics”? Who needs to know what from whom about climate science Whose Eyes Are You Going to Believe? An Empirical Examination of Scott v. Harris Why cultural predispositions matter & how to measure them: a fragment … Why the science of science communication needs to go back to highschool (& college; punctuated with visits to museum & science film-making studio) Why We Are Poles Apart on Climate Change Wild wild horses couldn’t drag me away: four “principles” for science communication and policymaking Wisdom from Silver’s Signal & Noise, part 2: Climate change & the political perils of forecasting maturation Women for & against Trump: who sees what & why . . . . WSMD? JA! “Confidence intervals” for “Political Polarization Literacy” test Yet another installment of: “I only *study* science communication …” You guessed it: some more cultural cognition glossary/whatever entries–affect heuristic & conflict entrepreneurs Zelig Problem
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